It’s that time of the year again. I think about this blog all year long. I am constantly reminded that this breakout profile works. It has become more and more refined every year. It is not perfect, things happen, players get hurt, maybe they don’t get enough playing time or whatever, but it gets proven every year that the players that fit this breakout profile have a very good chance of breaking out or at least putting up some of the best stats of their career. Last year threw a wrench in the breakout profile with it being a modified shortened season. Some players I will double up on again for this year because of that. Guys that did breakout last year, to some extent, one way or another, that fit the profile were; Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Jesse Winker, Brandon Nimmo, Rhys Hoskins, Brain Anderson, Byron Buxton, Teoscar Hernandez, Jeimer Candelario. Now remember some of these guys may have already “broken out” or they just are not very good. These players fit the breakout profile and that is why they are on here. Their breakout profile fits their respective talent and possible outcome. So some of these guys may only be targeted in deeper leagues, their breakout may not be good enough for you team. There are many players I like this year that don’t fit this profile but the guys that do fit this profile I target and value more than some of the players around their ADP. This is the only blog I do these days so I am going to add a little more at the end then usual. I think picking breakout players is one of the most important aspects of fantasy. The other thing I think is really important is figuring out the ones to avoid. I usually like a ton of players and I have to figure out the ones I am going to take a pass on. So at the end I will have a small section of who to avoid and who to replace them with. The breakouts I will list first by their league, then in order of my confidence in the profile, and the confidence they will provide my projected stats. Of course these stats are predicted thinking that these players stay healthy and stay in the lineup. I did project some of these players stats assuming they may only have 400 AB’s compared to others that could have 600 AB’s. The projections are for batting average/home runs/stolen bases. Counting stats like RBI’s and runs scored will be reflective as to where these players bat in the lineup and the team that they play on. Alright now time for the breakouts and their projections. A lot of guys from the AL this year.
NL
Dominic Smith .294/34/2
Ian Happ (again) .254/28/7
Bryan Reynolds .291/22/4
Raimel Tapia .286/13/18
Jesse Winker (again) .271/27/1
Ryan McMahon .257/29/6
Christian Walker .275/31/2
Scott Kingery .262/22/13
AL
Austin Meadows .283/35/11
Yoan Moncada (again) .278/29/12
Gleyber Torres .282/36/8
Adalberto Mondesi .271/15/62
Franmil Reyes .268/42/0
Matt Olson (again) .263/45/1
Joey Gallo (again) .238/44/4
David Dahl (again) .287/23/4
Ramon Laureano .284/27/15
Brandon Lowe .263/28/11
Luke Voit .281/38/0
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. .289/29/7
Anthony Santander .258/33/1
Gio Urshela .308/26/2
David Fletcher .312/12/6
Shohei Ohtani .278/32/14
Hunter Dozier .267/28/4
Victor Reyes .298/9/16
Rowdy Tellez .277/26/2
Don’t draft at ADP
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (53) take Josh Bell (150)
2B Cavan biggio (60) take Ketel Marte (76)
3B Nolan Arenado (29) take Eugenio Suarez (75)
SS Francisco Lindor (16) /Bo Bichette (26) take Gleyber Torres (66)
OF Eloy Jimenez (33) take Nick Castellanos (83)
OF Marcell Ozuna (42) take Trey Mancini (176)
OF Randy Arozarena (60) take Ramon Laureano (150)
P Trevor Bauer (14) take Tyler Mahle (197)
P Kenta Maeda (53) take Joe Musgrove (136)
P Sonny Gray (71) take Dylan Cease (331)