Expert Fantasy Advice

2021 Fantasy Baseball Breakouts!

It’s that time of the year again. I think about this blog all year long. I am constantly reminded that this breakout profile works. It has become more and more refined every year. It is not perfect, things happen, players get hurt, maybe they don’t get enough playing time or whatever, but it gets proven every year that the players that fit this breakout profile have a very good chance of breaking out or at least putting up some of the best stats of their career. Last year threw a wrench in the breakout profile with it being a modified shortened season. Some players I will double up on again for this year because of that. Guys that did breakout last year, to some extent, one way or another, that fit the profile were; Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Jesse Winker, Brandon Nimmo, Rhys Hoskins, Brain Anderson, Byron Buxton, Teoscar Hernandez, Jeimer Candelario. Now remember some of these guys may have already “broken out” or they just are not very good. These players fit the breakout profile and that is why they are on here. Their breakout profile fits their respective talent and possible outcome. So some of these guys may only be targeted in deeper leagues, their breakout may not be good enough for you team. There are many players I like this year that don’t fit this profile but the guys that do fit this profile I target and value more than some of the players around their ADP. This is the only blog I do these days so I am going to add a little more at the end then usual. I think picking breakout players is one of the most important aspects of fantasy. The other thing I think is really important is figuring out the ones to avoid. I usually like a ton of players and I have to figure out the ones I am going to take a pass on. So at the end I will have a small section of who to avoid and who to replace them with. The breakouts I will list first by their league, then in order of my confidence in the profile, and the confidence they will provide my projected stats. Of course these stats are predicted thinking that these players stay healthy and stay in the lineup. I did project some of these players stats assuming they may only have 400 AB’s compared to others that could have 600 AB’s. The projections are for batting average/home runs/stolen bases. Counting stats like RBI’s and runs scored will be reflective as to where these players bat in the lineup and the team that they play on. Alright now time for the breakouts and their projections. A lot of guys from the AL this year.

Dominic Smith .294/34/2

Ian Happ (again) .254/28/7

Bryan Reynolds .291/22/4

Raimel Tapia .286/13/18

Jesse Winker (again) .271/27/1

Ryan McMahon .257/29/6

Christian Walker .275/31/2

Scott Kingery .262/22/13

Austin Meadows .283/35/11

Yoan Moncada (again) .278/29/12

Gleyber Torres .282/36/8

Adalberto Mondesi .271/15/62

Franmil Reyes .268/42/0

Matt Olson (again) .263/45/1

Joey Gallo (again) .238/44/4

David Dahl (again) .287/23/4

Ramon Laureano .284/27/15

Brandon Lowe .263/28/11

Luke Voit .281/38/0

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. .289/29/7

Anthony Santander .258/33/1

Gio Urshela .308/26/2

David Fletcher .312/12/6

Shohei Ohtani .278/32/14

Hunter Dozier .267/28/4

Victor Reyes .298/9/16

Rowdy Tellez .277/26/2

Don’t draft at ADP

1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (53) take Josh Bell (150)

2B Cavan biggio (60) take Ketel Marte (76)

3B Nolan Arenado (29) take Eugenio Suarez (75)

SS Francisco Lindor (16) /Bo Bichette (26) take Gleyber Torres (66)

OF Eloy Jimenez (33) take Nick Castellanos (83)

OF Marcell Ozuna (42) take Trey Mancini (176)

OF Randy Arozarena (60) take Ramon Laureano (150)

P Trevor Bauer (14) take Tyler Mahle (197)

P Kenta Maeda (53) take Joe Musgrove (136)

P Sonny Gray (71) take Dylan Cease (331)

2020 Fantasy Baseball Breakouts!

I started following this breakout profile 3 years ago and it has seemed to hold up very well. Guys last year that fit this profile really well were the likes of Josh Bell, Ketel Marte, Trevor Story, Trea Turner, Michael Conforto, Kyle Schwarber, Tim Anderson, Max Kepler, Jorge Soler, Trey Mancini, Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano. I targeted many of these players in my drafts last year and it paid off big time. The breakout profile can be a bit vague, and some guys fit it better than others, but all of these guys listed fit it last year. I have tweaked the profile a little bit over that past two years and have really zoned in on the profile that seems to really predict a breakout season. I HAVE 24 GUYS THIS YEAR! It just so happens that there are 12 in each the NL and AL, which is nice. This year I am going to put my predicted breakout numbers next to the players on my list. I am only going to list Batting AVG. Home Runs and Stolen Bases, since these are the easiest numbers to predict for breakouts. Now remember, like I have said in the past, I want to emphasize that these are players that fit the profile. Some of these players are not very good, some you can say they already had a “breakout” season, but the breakout profile predicts that these players will most likely have their best season to date. Some of these players, even with a “breakout” season coming, may be reserve player or NL/AL only type guys. Also, some of these guys that will be listed are a bit of a stretch to the profile (the ones that are lower on the list) and may fit the profile better next year. I will list the players first by their league, then in order of my confidence in the profile, and the confidence they will provide my projected stats. Of course these stats or predicted thinking that these players stay healthy and stay in the lineup. I did project some of these players stats assuming they may only have 400 AB’s compared to others that will have 600 AB’s. Counting stats like RBI’s and runs scored will be reflective as to where these players bat in the lineup and the team that they play on. Lets get to it!

Paul Dejong .253/32/7

Rhys Hoskins .252/37/4

Amed Rosario .279/17/26

Brian Anderson .274/28/8

Dansby Swanson .259/21/15

Ozzie Albies .289/27/18

Scott Kingery .255/24/18

David Dahl .286/26/8

Brandon Nimmo .267/19/12

Jesse Winker .292/24/1

Ian Happ .267/22/10

Johan Camargo .276/22/2

Matt Olson .272/44/4

Yoan Moncada .288/29/16

Joey Gallo .248/46/8

Byron Buxton .256/19/32

Matt Chapman .284/34/2

Mallex Smith .258/8/54

Rafael Devers .304/35/11

Manuel Margot .261/17/23

Teoscar Hernandez .243/31/9

Hunter Renfroe .245/35/4

Aaron Judge .287/39/7

Mark Canha .278/29/4

Go ahead and go win your league now!

Don’t Screw it Up!

It is that time of the year. For fantasy football players the best time of the year. DRAFT TIME! In the next few weeks people will be gathering with their friends, some beer, some jokes and enjoy a time of proving who knows the most about putting together a stud team. One thing I always notice when I do my draft prep is there are so many guys I like, too many to draft. Finding the guys that are under the radar that make a big impact is very important but I have also found it is just as important to make a list of the guys I am not touching. I actually cross them off my list before I draft knowing someone else will take them. These are guys that if I look at my team after the draft, and saw them on my paper, I would think I SCREWED UP! Now I believe every player has a value at some point so if these guys were to fall a round, or two in some cases, later than their ADP I wouldn’t say it is stupid to draft them. I will list each of my guys that I am not touching. On the left will be their Overall ADP and on the right their positional ADP according to ESPN PPR rankings.

(47) Patrick Mahomes (1) – he is awesome but going 3-4 rounds higher than any other QB.

(72) Deshaun Watson (2)- I would take Rodgers, Ryan or Luck instead.

(112) Drew Brees (9)- Good value but I wouldn’t want him as my starting QB.

(18) Joe Mixon (10)- Like too many other guys around him more.

(23) Leonard Fournette (12)- He is talented but can’t trust him.

(28) Devonta Freeman (13)- I want to like him but I can’t do it.

(35) Derrick Henry (16)- I would love him in the 6th round but not the 3rd.

(17) Antonio Brown (7)- Way too many question marks.

(24) T.Y. Hilton (11)- Don’t see him as a guy that I would want as my #1 WR.

(32) A.J. Green (15)- This one could flip. If his draft value drops, drastically, and it might, he may turn into a target pick.

(33) Brandin Cooks (16)- I think he is the third best receiver on his team. If that is the case, no way he ends up a top 20 WR.

(42) Alshon Jeffery (20)- Too many options in Philly. Foles loved Jeffery, Wentz not so much.

(27) George Kittle (2)- I really like him but I have seen him go in the late second or early third round.

(99) Delanie Walker (8)- Would rather punt on TE and take a flier in the 14th round.

Looking Ahead at 2020 Baseball Breakouts

Again, this is looking at the players that fit the breakout profile entering the 2020 season. The same profile that fit players coming into the 2019 season, such as, Josh Bell, Max Kepler and Ketel Marte. This is not a list of players I like, although I do like a lot of these guys, it is simply the players that fit the profile. So these players might be worth a pick in your league but it depends on the size of your league. 10 team, 12 team or more, NL only, AL only. The breakout profile can be a little broad but I tried to only pick the guys that truly fit the profile. With that being said, I like some of these guys more than others, so I will list them from guys I like most to guys that would be a bit of a flier. Reasons I like some guys more than others with this profile is that it still comes down to opportunity. Their teams have to give these players an opportunity to breakout. So it also depends on roster construction and the teams tendencies that these players play for. Also, remember, this profile is only for hitting. I do pick pitchers that I like every year but this is not that blog.

David Dahl OF

Rhys Hoskins OF

Jesse Winker OF

Ozzie Albies 2B

Paul Dejong SS

Amed Rosario SS

Dansby Swanson SS

Manuel Margot OF

Scott Kingery OF/3B

Brian Anderson OF

Albert Almora OF

Orlando Arcia SS

AL (Not very many this year)

Matt Olson 1B (Fits the profile best, like Bell this year)

Matt Chapman 3B

Rafael Devers 3B

Obviously some of these guys have been very good so far in their career and some haven’t done much. I would bet on these guys having their best seasons next year, or at the very least, coming close to duplicating their best season in the past.

2019 Fantasy Football Draft Guide

Every year in July I print out the ESPN fantasy football cheat sheet and I highlight the players I like. So a few weeks ago I did this. I want to share with you the guys that I highlighted. Now, highlighting a player means that I am going to target them. By highlighting them it means that I really like them or I think they should be drafted earlier than their ranking suggests. This first cheat sheet that I print out, the first of many, is based off of what I remember from last year seeing them play or if they have had a change of venue. Throughout the preseason things can change, due to injuries or news. So this is just my first cheat sheet. I will share with you the players that I have highlighted so far. This is for PPR ranking purposes. Here we go!!

Carson Wentz

Dak Prescott

Jared Goff

Jameis Winston

Kirk Cousins

Alvin Kamara ( I would take #1 overall)

Dalvin Cook

Marlon Mack

Aaron Jones

Chris Carson

Phillip Lindsay

Miles Sanders

D’Onta Foreman

Mike Evans

Stefon Diggs

Cooper Kupp

Calvin Ridley

Courtland Sutton

DeSean Jackson

James Washington

Anthony Miller

Jared Cook

Vance McDonald

Trey Burton

Mark Andrews

A look back at my breakout picks for the 2019 season

The best way to enhance your chances of having a great season, and winning your league, is to have those key breakout players. You want to have those players that give the most value from their draft position. The players that when other owners in your league look at your team, they say, he got that guy when? Of course having Mookie Betts or Freddie Freeman on your team is nice, and will help you win, but you had to pay a high price for those players and everyone saw it coming. The players that really help you win are the breakout players that you picked in the 10th or 12th round that give you second or third round value. My strategy is to load up on as many of these guys that I can and hope they hit their breakout potential. Where do you find these guys? I have a formula that I have figured out this last year and I am putting it to the test. This is only for offensive players not pitching. So far, it seems to be panning out quite well. It takes players profiles and their statistical trends and predicts when they will have their breakout season. I have gone back and looked at hundreds of players profiles over the last 40ish years and a lot of their profiles are similar. With that being said, here are the guys that I picked in the beginning of the year that fit the profile. All of these players have very similar profiles coming into this season. Can you figure out what it is?

National League

Josh Bell 1B

Michael Conforto OF

Kyle Schwarber OF

Trea Turner SS

Trevor Story SS

Ketel Marte OF/SS/2B

American League

Byron Buxton OF

Joey Gallo OF/1B

Max Kepler OF

Nomar Mazara OF

Domingo Santana OF

Alex Bregman 3B/SS

Tim Anderson SS

Matt Chapman 3B

Miguel Sano 3B/OF

Most of these players have broken out this year. There are are few factors that come into play here. Some of these players already had their breakout season, like Story, Bregman and Turner but they fit the profile so I targeted them in my leagues banking on the fact that they would have the best chance to duplicate their breakout season or have an even better season. The other thing that comes into play with this is injuries. Obviously a player won’t have their breakout season if they get injured. Every year their are players that will fit this profile. I will continue to try and target all the players that fit this profile in my drafts for years to come. In a later blog I will reveal the players that will fit this profile going into the 2020 season. I like to keep players in mind, especially in the second half, that I am interested in drafting in next years draft.

Padres Preview

With the trade deadline approaching I have been hearing a lot of chatter about what the Padres should do. The main question being, should they trade Kirby Yates. I will break down both sides of the discussion and give you my opinion. First off, the Padres are in a much different position at this trade deadline then they have in recent years. They have always been big time sellers. Now this year they are in limbo. Do you sell and acquire more young talent? Do you sell and try to acquire major league ready talent? Or do you go all in and sell your young talent for impact players for this year and years to come.

Noah Syndergaard, I would not go in that direction. It is intriguing because he has a ton of talent and he is only 26 years old, but the asking price has got to be crazy high, and I don’t think it would be in the Padres best interest to give up the farm for a pitcher that is a little unknown at this point. He may put it all together and be a stud ace for the next 4 years but I haven’t seen it yet.

The other name that has been coming up is Trevor Bauer. Not sure if the asking price on Bauer is as high as Syndergaard, Bauer is 28 years old and has a career ERA of 3.88, but I think he is a better pitcher. He is free agent eligible in 2021, where he should get paid big time. I’m just not sure what the Indians want to do. Do they want major league ready help for their playoff run this year? Or do they want to get young cheap talent for their future. If they wanted Kirby Yates or Hunter Renfroe and were willing to part with Bauer I would be listening.

As far as trading Yates I can see both sides. The Padres are at a point where they want to win now, or at least next season, so they really have to think about what they are giving up, what they are getting in return, and how it will make an immediate impact.

YES trade Yates. Of course it all depends on what you get in return. It would have to be a return that would involve major league ready help at a place where it is needed. Which coincidentally the Padres biggest needs are top of the rotation help and middle relief. This is why it is tricky. Teams that are wanting to trade for Yates most likely will not give up top end major league ready SP’s or valuable relievers, they will need them this year. There are are few places I think this could work. The before mentioned Bauer, but I’m not sure if the Indians want Yates for Bauer. The two most likely places for Yates would be Boston and Atlanta. So let’s see how this could work. From Boston I would want the talented underachieving arm of Eduardo Rodriguez. Or from Boston I would want Matt Barnes and a prospect. Darren Balsley could make Barnes a Yates like closer by next year. From Atlanta I would want one or two of their young arms. They have a ton of them. They have some guys that could make an impact next year. The two I like the most are Kyle Wright and Ian Anderson but guys like Kyle Muller, Luiz Gohara, Bryse Wilson and Touki Toussaint would work as well.

NO don’t trade Yates. The clear thought on this is if we are in win now, or win next year mode, why would we trade our All-Star closer. You only have to go back as far as last season to find where the Padres may have shot themselves in the foot with this thinking. Brad Hand for Francisco Mejia is not looking very good. Hand may have been a huge piece to the puzzle that the Padres were missing this year to make a legit playoff run. While Mejia is a struggling back up catcher. Now Mejia is a 23 year old catcher that can really hit, which is a major asset, so I don’t think the Hand deal was a bad one, but we could look back next year and say “DANG if we just had Yates and Hand.”

With that being said I would trade Yates if the Padres got offers similar to the ones that I mentioned. If they don’t, I would be fine with the Padres staying put and bringing back most of the same team next year. What would that look like???

Fernando Tatis SS
Eric Hosmer 1B
Manny Machado 3B
Franmil Reyes RF
Hunter Renfroe LF
Luis Urias 2B
Manuel Margot CF
Austin Hedges C

Chris Paddack
Dinelson Lamet
Joey Lucchesi
Garrett Richards
Cal Quantrill/Mackenzie Gore (mid-season call up)

Set up- Andres Munoz

Closer- Kirby Yates

I could also see Adrian Morejon being in a similar role as Josh Hader of the Brewers. Where he gets 3 to 6 outs in relief and picks up some saves.

Let’s end it with some Padres fantasy advice for 2020. Going into next year I really like Manuel Margot and Dinelson Lamet. Here is why.

Margot is coming into his breakout years. He will be entering his age 25 season and have about 1,500 at bats under his belt. I would predict Margot’s stat line to look like .268 AVG 16 HR’s 22 SB’s in 2020. He would be a good play in deeper leagues and NL only leagues.

Lamet is coming off of Tommy John Surgery and has nasty stuff. I have seen that pitchers who are a year and a half removed from TJ surgery emerge better than they have ever been. For example, Walker Buehler and Chris Paddack. Lamet is set up perfect he will get some innings in down the stretch this year and then come back stronger than ever next year.

Difference makers down the stretch

The fantasy baseball season is a very long season. At this point hopefully you have put yourself in a reasonable position to win your league. Quite frankly the season starts now. Many of my leagues I have won because of moves I have made that set me up for the stretch run. This is also a difficult time for some because, if one plays fantasy football as well as fantasy baseball, they may easily lose their focus and start looking towards their fantasy football draft when it is the most crucial time of their baseball season. I tend to see guys get really stoked on the draft for their league but then lose focus when it comes time to win their league. I love draft season and draft day is like Christmas for adults but now is the time to put in the effort and focus on making the moves that can impact your team for a championship win. With that being said, I have a handful of guys that I really like going forward for the rest of the season. These can be guys that you pick up in daily leagues, make a trade for or pick up off of the waiver wire. These are guys that always have a better second half than first half of the season or maybe I have just noticed them playing better and think it will continue.

Brian Dozier 2B- He has always been a slow starter and then came around. He plays second base, which is one of the worst positions if fantasy. Yes he is on the older side and he isn’t the player he used to be, but I still think he has a good second half left in him with some good power numbers from 2B.
Yasiel Puig OF- Puig has already started to finally come around after a slow start in his first season with the Reds. Puig is looking comfortable, he plays in a small park where the ball flies when it is hot and the Reds lineup is actually pretty good when everyone is healthy.
Paul DeJong SS- DeJong was one of my breakout predictions at the start of the year. He got off to a great start but then got into a slump that he couldn’t shake. He recently got moved down in the order and he seems to have taken it in stride. I think he will big a big power contributor form the SS position the rest of the way. In the last 7 days he has 2 HR’s and 7 RBI’s.
Matt Olson 1B- This guy has tons of power and I think he will put a lot of balls in the seats down the stretch. He broke his hamate bone early in the season and was out for a while but he has still looked good and had plenty of power since his return. I would bet on it only getting better and better for MR. Olson.
Micheal Pineda SP- His last start was a dud, with an uncharacteristic 5 walks, but he has been very good in every way as of late. He has been often injured but has been healthy this season. He offers everything you want from a SP. He has been consistently going 5 or 6 innings, which is pretty good these days, he has averaged 7 k’s per start over his last four starts, not bad, and he has showed stellar command in the games that I have watched him pitch. The bonus is he plays in a division with the worst hitting teams.

In my next blog I will be looking back on my breakout predictions for this year and giving a glimpse into my breakout picks for next year.

What really works

This is my first fantasy baseball blog, it comes in the second half of the 2019 baseball season. This will be expert advice from a guy who has been playing fantasy sports for about 20 years. I don’t win all my leagues, but I do finish in the top few spots on a very consistent basis.

This blog, and the advice I give, will be coming from a little bit of a different angle than you may be used to. These days, there is so much information at our fingertips, but the analytics has gotten out of control. I believe advanced stats (wOBA, BABIP,xFIP, SIERA) can be very useful and they can give you some insight for what may happen in the future. The true insight that I want to find is the trends that will continue with statistical references (first half vs. second half etc.) along with WATCHING the players play. It really comes down to watching baseball. The more you watch, see what the players are doing, the more you will notice what a player is like. Duh! I have been able to do this more than ever this year since I have MLB.tv. The eye test is the most important test out there. I can watch one of my pitchers pitch in a game, and if I am not bias to that particular pitcher, just because they are on my team and I spent a draft pick on them, then I can watch and evaluate if they look good. One good example of this, in this years draft, was Nick Pivetta. Now I was not sold on Pivetta, and was not targeting him in my drafts, but I did end up with him in a league. He was on all of the sleeper and breakout lists because of his Sabermetric stats from 2018. He got off to a poor start in 2019 so I wanted to make sure I watched him pitch. He stinks! What happened was, it was hard for me to watch. I wanted him to do well because he was on my team but as he was pitching I was thinking to myself he is going to get shelled. And he did. So what I came away with from that game was, if it is hard to watch your pitcher pitch and you are just hoping for him to make it through 5 innings with less than 5 earned runs he isn’t worth owning. Now you can’t do that with every player, and every start, sometimes guys just have bad starts. But if you are not sure about a guy, and he is struggling, watching him pitch or hit will tell you the story. I know everyone isn’t able to watch a ton of baseball and see all of their guys play. Heck in the past I have probably had a pitching staff on my team where I never saw half of them throw a single pitch in a season. If it wasn’t a local broadcast or a nationally televised game I didn’t see it. If you can watch it will help tremendously. If you can’t, I can!

This year I have also discovered a scenario for breakout players. It is an equation that will predict breakout players every year. (I’ll give you a hint- Josh Bell was one of my top breakout contenders) In some coming up blogs I will reveal the players that fit this model for the 2019 season and how they are performing along with the players that fit this model going into the 2020 season.

I will also share some insight on who will finish the 2019 season strong and help you win your league. Things like Brian Dozier is one of the best second half fantasy players over the last four years.